Seoul Salon Survival Calculator
Calculate only coherent observed cohorts; preserve unavailable horizons and show the denominator.
Choose the administrative question and read the result with its source coverage. All inputs remain in browser memory and do not submit an application or identify an individual business.
On this page
| Horizon | Cohort rows | Surviving rows | Rate (%) | Observation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3,626 | 3,266 | 90.1 | Source-date method |
| 3 years | 3,626 | 2,528 | 69.7 | Source-date method |
| 5 years | 3,626 | 2,050 | 56.5 | Source-date method |
| 10 years | 3,626 | Not available | Not available | Insufficient observation |
Openings in selected years
Closures in selected years
Show as a table (1 rows)
| Year | Openings by permit date | Closures by closure date |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3,626 | 2,688 |
Rates are weighted by cohort size. Long horizons for recent cohorts are not projected. Results describe permit records retained in the current file and can be affected by reporting lags, removals and corrections. Very old dates do not establish actual founding dates or legal history.
What does the Seoul survival calculator group?
The selected opening year, district and source type define the eligible administrative cohort.
The cohort is different from the current normal-operation population. It begins with coherent opening records and keeps their denominator visible. The same business-history file can support both measures, but the source filters and time questions are different.
Begin with the opening cohort rather than the current active count. Current active permits omit closures by definition, so they cannot be the original denominator for a survival calculation. The tool reads the eligible permit-year cohort and its matched closure information.
| Tool | Input | Source combination | Result limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| District explorer | District, source type, measure | Normal permits and matched population when available | No business recommendations |
| Survival calculation | Opening cohort and observed horizon | Coherent permit and closure dates | No unobserved long-horizon rate |
| Startup checks | Residence family, licence state, activity | Government licence, reporting and residence explanations | Authority confirmation remains separate |
Why is a Seoul survival horizon unavailable?
The full opening year must have enough time to reach the requested horizon.
Early-year and late-year openings reach anniversaries at different times. The annual rule does not present the observed subset as a complete cohort. Unavailable horizons remain distinct from zero survivors and from no eligible records.
Each horizon has its own observation check. Availability at one year does not imply availability at five or ten years. If the requested horizon is unavailable, choose a mature cohort or read the shorter observed result without extrapolating the missing years.
| Display | Meaning | Not interpreted as |
|---|---|---|
| No matched population | Required denominator absent | Zero residents |
| Insufficient observation | The whole horizon is not observable | Zero survival |
| No coherent cohort | No comparable eligible denominator | No permits ever existed |
| Authority check | The actual permission and evidence need review | Automatic rejection or approval |
What formula does the Seoul survival calculator use?
It divides coherent surviving records by the corresponding eligible cohort size after checking observation.
When groups are combined, numerators and denominators are added separately. This preserves the size of each eligible group. A simple average of percentages would instead give differently sized cohorts equal weight. A zero denominator does not produce a rate.
Which Seoul survival records fail the date check?
Conflicting status/date records and closed rows without a valid end date stay outside the coherent denominator.
A missing closure date must not turn a known closed state into an indefinite survivor. Closure before opening also cannot provide a coherent operating span. Those exclusions are recorded in the source audit and do not silently alter the definition of the current normal-operation count.
The denominator can change when an inconsistent date is excluded. Read the eligible cohort size rather than substituting an annual-opening total from another chart. That total can include a record which is valid as an opening event but unusable for coherent follow-up.
How is the Seoul survival anniversary boundary handled?
A closure must be after the anniversary to count as surviving that horizon.
A closure on the anniversary is outside the survivor numerator. The calendar-date rule also defines leap-day handling. Reproducing a result requires the same strict comparison and date addition, not merely the same displayed year label.
Does the Seoul survival result predict profit?
It is an administrative-record measure and does not assess profitability, customer retention or an individual business plan.
The source does not explain every closure reason or ownership change. Two records surviving the same period can have very different financial outcomes. The tool displays the defined historical measure without converting it into a personal success probability or a district investment recommendation.
The tool does not identify a particular surviving business. Aggregation removes that purpose and publishes only the cohort size and survived count. A small cohort result should still be treated as an administrative description rather than a judgement about individual businesses or founders.
How is a Seoul survival result reproduced?
Retain source version, filters, numerator, denominator and observed horizon.
A later correction to a source date can revise a historical cohort. The current result therefore names its snapshot instead of claiming permanence. Only district/type/date aggregates are distributed; no names, phones, detailed addresses or coordinates are needed to explain the calculation.
A result note can record cohort year, district, source type and requested horizon without identifying any member. This is enough to distinguish two calculations and to ask why one is unavailable. Keep the denominator and retrieval date with that note.
What are the limits of this tool?
- Administrative records are not real-time business checks.
- Unmatched denominators and unobserved horizons remain unavailable.
- Licensing, residence and business reporting are determined by the responsible authority.
Read each result with its reference date, source scope and unresolved-field notes.
What basis are these numbers on?
| Snapshot | Source | Reference date | Retrieved | Site calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul permit cohorts and yearly flows | Seoul Metropolitan Government | October 26, 2026 | October 26, 2026 | Eligible anniversary survivors / cohort size |
What else do people ask about Seoul Salon Survival Calculator?
Where can I find Seoul beauty-salon statistics?
Use the Seoul Open Data Plaza beauty-business permit dataset. Permit status describes administrative records and does not establish live opening hours or service quality.
What is the denominator?
The coherent eligible opening cohort.
Is an unobserved horizon zero?
It remains unavailable.
Are percentages averaged?
Counts are pooled before division.
Does a blank end date always mean active?
A closed status with no valid date is excluded.
Is profit predicted?
No financial outcome is measured.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Seoul beauty business permit data Dataset description and fields; the full public CSV was parsed into aggregates without saving business identifiers.
- Beauty licence eligibility Government legal explanation of Public Health Control Act Article 6; not a binding individual ruling.
- Beauty business reporting and change reports Reporting, facility summary and listed conditional documents; exceptions are not generalised to all salons.
- Immigration Enforcement Decree Article 23 Current-version heading and indexed Article 23 text were checked. The fetched body uses JavaScript; F-2 subtypes are not treated as one unrestricted group.